Supply-Side Support Weakens, Iron Ore Fluctuates Downward [SMM Commentary]

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Today, DCE iron ore fluctuated downward. The most-traded I2505 contract closed at 806.5 yuan/mt, down 0.92% for the day. Traders showed moderate willingness to sell; steel mills remained cautious and purchased as needed. Market transactions were moderate. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction prices of PB fines were 800-807 yuan/mt, stable compared to last Friday; in Tangshan, PB fines traded at around 810-815 yuan/mt, down slightly by 5 yuan/mt from last Friday. According to SMM shipping data, global iron ore shipments totaled 24.78 million mt last week, down slightly by 8% WoW. Among them, Australian shipments were 13.14 million mt, down 3.6% WoW, with the impact of the cyclone being less severe than market expectations. Brazilian shipments were 5.04 million mt, down significantly by 32.8% WoW. However, SMM data showed that China's iron ore arrivals totaled 23.26 million mt, up slightly by 5.94% WoW. In the short term, supply-side support has weakened, but over the past month, iron ore shipments have been disrupted by multiple factors, leading to an overall decline in supply, with limited pressure on ore prices. Moving forward, attention should focus on changes in industrial data, and ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating at high levels in the short term.